Tag: Experian

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Economy

Subprime Storm Clouds on the Horizon

Mark Rappaport President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Mark Rappaport
President
Simplicity Division
EFG Companies

The automotive finance industry has been riding a five year high with an average 8.30 percent year-over-year increase in unit sales from 2011 to 2015, according to data from Wards Auto. With the rapid pace of automotive industry growth lending requirements loosened, longer term loans became the norm and subprime lending skyrocketed.

With key market indications shifting, everyone is watching the market carefully, poised to tighten lending requirements. According to Experian, average new vehicle loan terms increased to 67 months in 2015, while used vehicle loan terms increased to 63 months. This has resulted in a significant growth of negative equity on car notes.

According to the NADA Used Car Guide (NADA UCG), the percent of originations, including trades that carried negative equity, increased year-over-year by 2 percent. In addition, NADA UCG also stated that based on data from J.D. Power’s PIN Network, of the cars that had an equity position in 2015 and 2016, the trade-in value decreased by 50 percent. In Q1 of 2015, the average trade-in value for a car was $1,000. By Q1 of 2016, the average trade-in value had decreased to $500.

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Categories
Business Growth F&I

Don’t Let Delinquency Keep You Down

Mark Rappaport President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Mark Rappaport
President
Simplicity Division
EFG Companies

Currently, the headlines are offering a lot of doom and gloom for the subprime auto finance market with regards to rising auto loan delinquency rates and the sheer amount of subprime paper.

According to the February Equifax National Consumer Credit Trends Report, 21.7 percent of all auto loans originated between January and November, 2015 were issued to consumers considered to be in the subprime market.

This marks the fourth year where the subprime segment accounted for between 21 and 22 percent of all auto loans.

In addition, Fitch Ratings reported that in February, 60-day delinquencies experienced a 12 percent year-over-year increase, bringing the delinquency rate to 5.16 percent. This is the highest delinquency rate since October, 1996. To put this into perspective, delinquencies peaked at 5.04 percent during the 2008 financial crisis.

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Categories
Economy

Bubble, no Bubble? It Doesn’t Matter!

Contributing Author: Steve Klees

 

Contributing Author: Steve Klees, Senior Vice President, Specialty Channels, EFG Companies

For the past several months we’ve heard arguments across the industry about whether a subprime bubble is forming. Experian has stated in at least the last three quarterly State of Auto Finance updates that there simply is no bubble.  I tend to agree. Here’s why:

For an economic bubble to form in the auto industry, the prices of vehicles must inflate well beyond the actual vehicle value, past what the market can bear. While prices for both new and used vehicles have gone up in recent years, the market is still very capable of handling those prices. The main reason for this is the combination of low interest rates and longer-term loans.

For example, take a subprime consumer who purchased a vehicle in 2009. Because of the stringent lending requirements at that time, that consumer locked in a 9% interest rate on a 60-month term loan. Then, in 2014, they decided to trade in their vehicle for a newer used-model vehicle. Because the consumer kept up with their monthly payments and possibly made other credit strides with better employment, etc., they returned to the dealership as a near-prime consumer, and were able to refinance the remaining balance into their new vehicle payment at a 3.9% interest rate. With a new 60-month term loan, their payments stay roughly the same. The consumer already proved they could afford those payments with the first vehicle, so the risk remains roughly the same.

Continue reading “Bubble, no Bubble? It Doesn’t Matter!”