Tag: National Automobile Dealers Association

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Business Growth Compliance

Finding the Perfect Balance

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

From the very first time one person loaned another person their hard-earned money or goods, there has been a level of risk on whether they would ever see their money or property again. As the lender, finding that balance between risk and reward created the concepts of payment plans, requiring borrowers to pay back more than the total amount they originally received, as well as sophisticated algorithms for lenders to use to determine how lenient or restrictive to make their lending policies.

We are currently in a highly contemplative and speculative time when it comes to determining that perfect balance in auto finance. After seven consecutive years of vehicles sales gains, the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) is forecasting that vehicle sales will total out at 17.1 million new vehicles in 2017, slightly lower than total sales in 2016. This plateau could extend into 2018, or we could potentially even see the beginnings of a period of decline, or even a period of growth and expansion. It could go either way.

Lending practices differ greatly depending on whether an economy is expanding, plateauing, or declining. Hence, the period of reflection. Of course, a plateau at 17.1 million vehicles means that the consumer appetite for auto finance is still strong.

According to Experian’s latest State of Auto Finance Market Report, the total automotive open loan balance reached another record high in the second quarter of 2017, topping $1.1 billion. Average loan amounts remained high across all credit tiers, as well as across both new and used vehicles.

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Categories
Economy F&I

Navigating the Perfect Storm

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

One of the hot topics at the 2016 NADA Convention was the much debated subprime bubble in relation to rising delinquency rates. Again, industry experts worked to calm everyone’s nerves about Fitch Ratings’ latest report, which brought to everyone’s attention that as of February, 60-day delinquencies had risen to 5.16 percent, the highest rate since 1996. Even so, experts have once again stated that there is no bubble and delinquency rates are rising at a healthy level in conjunction with vehicle sales.

However, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points this past December, and the expectation that rates will rise again later this year, it can be posited that lenders will tighten restrictions within the subprime space. The last thing anyone wants is for higher interest rates to coincide with rising delinquency rates, creating a perfect storm that could potentially cause that debatable bubble to pop.

As you evaluate your portfolio risk and determine the best go-forward plan to maintain your market share, consider looking at avenues outside of those traditional lending benefits commonly used by the industry, like APR. While the industry has typically competed for ground on APR, lenders, especially in the subprime space, often have their hands tied on how low they can go due to Federal Reserve rate increases and portfolio risk.

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Categories
Business Growth Economy

Flat Auto Sales Doesn’t Have to Mean Flat Loan Volume

Steve Roennau Vice President Compliance EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Steve Roennau
Vice President
Compliance
EFG Companies

The National Automobile Dealers Association predicts new unit vehicle sales to top out at 17.7 million in 2016, which equates to less than 1% increase from the 17.5 million units in 2015. Industry experts across the board are expecting auto sales to plateau because of rising interest rates, increased regulatory compliance costs, and wage and income pressure. But that’s not to say there isn’t money to be made.

17.7 million units is still vastly greater than the 10.4 million unit sales from 2009. If anything, it marks one of the strongest recoveries the retail auto industry has ever experienced. With that in mind, there is still plenty of opportunity to increase loan volume, especially in the subprime market.

That’s right, I said there is opportunity in the subprime market. Even with rate increases and flat wage growth, the opportunity to increase loan volume and better protect your loan portfolio is there for those willing to look for it.

With the Federal Reserve slowly raising interest rates, everyone is on alert to see if and how economic setbacks will affect the subprime market. After all, economic downturns tend to hit the subprime demographics first, with sustained impact.

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