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Is Your Auto Loan Affordable?

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

According to a recent study from Bankrate.com, the average new-car price tag is too high for the majority of medium-income U.S. households. Here’s the breakdown:

In May, Kelley Blue Book updated the average new-vehicle transaction price to $33,261.

Using that transaction price, Bankrate applied the traditional 20-4-10 rule to conduct the study – i.e.:

  • a down payment of 20 percent
  • a four-year loan
  • principal, interest and insurance payments accounting for 10 percent of the household’s gross income

From looking at your own portfolios, you probably know that the majority of American consumers don’t put 20 percent down on their vehicle, and they are often financing for upwards of seven years. The fact that consumers don’t use the 20-4-10 rule should give you a good picture of the state of American finances in comparison to vehicle prices.

It should come as no surprise that Bankrate’s study came back showing that only one metro area could afford the average-priced new vehicle – Washington, D.C., where the median income is nearly $100,000.

Despite the fact that, according to Bankrate, most households can’t afford to purchase a new vehicle, new unit sales are still on par with last year’s levels. The most recent LMC Automotive/J.D. Power forecast puts 2017 new vehicle sales volume in the low 17 million-unit range for the year.

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Managing Rising Consumer Debt

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

The data says it all. According to Euromonitor and JATO, between 2009 and 2016:

  • U.S. consumer spending on vehicles grew by 36 percent
  • The outstanding balance of consumer auto loans increased by 36 percent
  • Disposable income only grew 15 percent
  • The outstanding balance of consumer loans as a whole decreased by 7 percent
  • The average auto debt per car in circulation rose by 44 percent

Everyone knows that since 2009, auto manufacturers and lenders aggressively pursued unit sales and loan volume. Manufacturers have hit a peak when it comes to providing deep incentives, while lenders loosened credit standards, increased terms, and dove into the deep-subprime space.

Morgan Stanley recently reported that the percentage of deep subprime loans rose from 5.1 percent in 2010 to 32.5 percent in 2017.

Now dealers, manufacturers, and lenders are beginning to see what the other side of this rapid expansion looks like. Sales are plateauing regardless of dealer or manufacturer incentives. Defaults and delinquencies are up, and loan originations are on the decline.

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Business Growth Economy

Choose: Compete or Manage Risk

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

Remember when you were shocked that average loan terms had increased to 62 months, then 68 months and so on? While the industry is no longer shocked by loan terms that last more than five years, lenders are now grappling with the reality that their borrowers are up-side-down on their loans for much longer periods of time while still making record-high loan payments.

According to Experian’s latest State of the Auto Finance Market report, the average new vehicle payment increased to $506 in Q4 2016, with an average loan term of 68 months and an average amount financed of $30,621.

Within 68 months, what do you think is the likelihood of a consumer experiencing something that would affect their ability to make their auto loan payment? Maybe their car breaks down or they lose their job. Your algorithms can probably tell you that the likelihood is pretty high. That’s why Experian has seen 60-day delinquencies rise in almost every State of the Auto Finance Market report issued in the past few years.