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Contributing Author: Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
One of the hot topics at the 2016 NADA Convention was the much debated subprime bubble in relation to rising delinquency rates. Again, industry experts worked to calm everyone’s nerves about Fitch Ratings’ latest report, which brought to everyone’s attention that as of February, 60-day delinquencies had risen to 5.16 percent, the highest rate since 1996. Even so, experts have once again stated that there is no bubble and delinquency rates are rising at a healthy level in conjunction with vehicle sales.
However, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points this past December, and the expectation that rates will rise again later this year, it can be posited that lenders will tighten restrictions within the subprime space. The last thing anyone wants is for higher interest rates to coincide with rising delinquency rates, creating a perfect storm that could potentially cause that debatable bubble to pop.
As you evaluate your portfolio risk and determine the best go-forward plan to maintain your market share, consider looking at avenues outside of those traditional lending benefits commonly used by the industry, like APR. While the industry has typically competed for ground on APR, lenders, especially in the subprime space, often have their hands tied on how low they can go due to Federal Reserve rate increases and portfolio risk.
Contributing Author: Mark Rappaport President Simplicity Division EFG Companies
Currently, the headlines are offering a lot of doom and gloom for the subprime auto finance market with regards to rising auto loan delinquency rates and the sheer amount of subprime paper.
According to the February Equifax National Consumer Credit Trends Report, 21.7 percent of all auto loans originated between January and November, 2015 were issued to consumers considered to be in the subprime market.
This marks the fourth year where the subprime segment accounted for between 21 and 22 percent of all auto loans.
In addition, Fitch Ratings reported that in February, 60-day delinquencies experienced a 12 percent year-over-year increase, bringing the delinquency rate to 5.16 percent. This is the highest delinquency rate since October, 1996. To put this into perspective, delinquencies peaked at 5.04 percent during the 2008 financial crisis.
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