Category: Economy

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Business Growth Economy

Mid-Year Economics Impact on Auto Lending

2023 has provided some surprises so far for retail auto lending. While many predicted we would be in the midst of a recession, other factors have proven the economy to be more resilient for the first half of the year. For credit unions, there are some definite upsides, but a prudent approach keeps a close eye on the data for the remainder of the year.

Interest rates remain a concern

While the Federal Reserve paused its corrective rate hikes in June, rising interest rates continue to keep some consumers out of the market. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2023, the average interest rate for a new vehicle increased to 6.58 percent, from 4.10 percent in 2022. The average interest rate for a used vehicle jumped from 8.67 percent in the first quarter of 2022 to 11.17 percent in Q1 2023. While Chairman Powell has signaled that the Federal Reserve will continue to use rate hikes to address inflation, it remains to be seen whether auto lending rates will continue their upward trajectory. If they do, then consumers may keep their vehicles longer or seek other options to meet their transportation needs.

Inflation eases, consumer confidence rises

According to U.S. Labor Department, the annual inflation rate declined from 6.4 percent in January to 4.0 percent in May. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index also improved substantially in June, soaring to 109.7, its highest level since January 2022. It would appear that the economy and consumer sentiments are on the upswing – unless you are in the market for a used vehicle. While the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) across all retail markets rose by only 0.1 percent in May, when you break out the CPI for just used cars, it tells a different story, marking a steep increase of 4.4 percent.

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Business Growth Economy

Maintaining Market Share Gains

Credit union auto lenders received an early holiday gift in the form of Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q2 2022. According to the quarterly report, credit unions’ auto lending market share increased to 25.81 percent, from 18.32 percent in Q2 2021. In comparison, captives decreased to 22.64 percent this quarter, from 28.47 percent the previous year. This was the highest increase of total market share credit unions have ever experienced. Whoop!

What prompted this exceptional gain? While captive lenders beat a hasty retreat from incentives, credit unions stayed flexible, offering lower interest rates to consumers seeking the best auto financing deal they could find. In Q2 2022, credit unions’ new vehicle market share increased to 26.69 percent, from 15.27 percent in Q2 2021, and grew used market share from 23.49 percent to 28.62 percent year-over-year.

Is this positive trend an anomaly – or do credit unions have the potential continue this growth into 2023? The answer depends on whether credit unions continue those practices which separate them from the competition as well as responding quickly to shifting consumer needs during these uncertain times.

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Business Growth Compliance Economy

Will New Rules Hamper Growth?

Credit unions have notched the highest percentage of auto loan originations since 2007. Leveraging consumer inflationary concerns and lower interest rates, Experian’s “State of the Automotive Finance Market” report for the second quarter released Aug. 25 showed credit unions produced 25.8 percent of the loans and leases from lenders in the three months ending June 30, up from 18.3 percent a year earlier and 22.1 percent in this year’s first quarter. Pop the corks and let the confetti fly!

Inflation concerns are likely to remain for the rest of 2022. The Federal Reserve signaled earlier this month that it plans to continue its aggressive approach to raising interest rates, with a target of 4.0 percent. However, declining gas prices across the country prompted a notable increase in the Consumer Confidence Index for August. Purchasing intent and vacation intent also increased, indicating that monetary concerns have not made a noticeable impact on consumer behavior.

In fact, consumers have made overall improvements in their financial health since the pandemic. Experian’s Melinda Zabritski, Senior Director of Automotive Financial Solutions, has seen continued improvement in consumer credit scores over the last several years with a greater percentage falling in the prime category.

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