Category: Economy

Help Dealers Help You

Post author By efgmarketing
Post date April 20, 2017

Contributing Author:
Mark Rappaport
President
Simplicity Division
EFG Companies

The first quarter has come and gone, and lenders and dealers alike are still seeing red flags in retail auto, and subsequently, the auto finance market. According to J.D. Power:

We have the wrong supply for current demand.

Vehicle production is not aligned with consumer demand. Manufacturers produced more sedans when buyers were in the market for crossover utility vehicles (CUVs). Because of this, half of all auto brands, and six out of 10 vehicle models lost sales volume in Q1.

Overall supply is much greater than demand.

Dealer inventory closed out Q1 at 4.1 million units, representing an increase of approximately 300,000 units from Q1 of 2016, and a half-million unit increase from 2015. What causes concern here is that analysts depict today’s consumer demand as identical to that of 2015, meaning supply is much greater than demand.

Incentive programs aren’t aligned with demand.

Industry-wide, the average manufacturer incentive for Q1 was $3,900. This comes after closing out 2016 with incentives as high as $4,000 per vehicle. Comparatively, these incentives are even higher than those in 2008/2009, when dealers needed anything possible to close just one sale.

In the midst of all this, loan terms continue to get longer.

Loans terms continue to lengthen, with 72 month terms accounting for 33.9 percent of new-vehicle sales. As you well know, this doesn’t bode well for defaults and delinquencies down the line.

Tags customer service, EFG, EFG Companies, J.D. Power, loan volume, Mark Rappaport

Business Growth Economy

Choose: Compete or Manage Risk

Post author By efgmarketing
Post date March 22, 2017

Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

Remember when you were shocked that average loan terms had increased to 62 months, then 68 months and so on? While the industry is no longer shocked by loan terms that last more than five years, lenders are now grappling with the reality that their borrowers are up-side-down on their loans for much longer periods of time while still making record-high loan payments.

According to Experian’s latest State of the Auto Finance Market report, the average new vehicle payment increased to $506 in Q4 2016, with an average loan term of 68 months and an average amount financed of $30,621.

Within 68 months, what do you think is the likelihood of a consumer experiencing something that would affect their ability to make their auto loan payment? Maybe their car breaks down or they lose their job. Your algorithms can probably tell you that the likelihood is pretty high. That’s why Experian has seen 60-day delinquencies rise in almost every State of the Auto Finance Market report issued in the past few years.

Tags Brien Joyce, EFG Companies, Experian, State of the Auto Finance Market

Business Growth Economy

The Rat Race is On!

Post author By efgmarketing
Post date February 18, 2017

Contributing Author:
Mark Rappaport
President
Sinplicity Division
EFG Companies

In 2016, we all held our breath to see how the presidential race would turn out, with everyone saying that those results would affect the economy. In the aftermath of President Trump’s win, we watched the “North Star” of the health of an economy – the stock markets – and they rose, hopefully signifying good times ahead.

Nevertheless, the heated political atmosphere continued past 2016 and into 2017. Now, you can’t listen to the radio, turn on the T.V., read a newspaper, or open a social media app without seeing articles about the current administration and whether or not it is successful. No matter if you are a Republican or Democrat, Trump or Clinton supporter, if you’re a lender seeing these stories proliferate, it probably gives you pause on whether the economy can weather this storm.

According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to stay above 17 million in 2017, roughly on par with last year’s levels. On all accounts, it currently looks like we’re still on track to meet those expectations. As a lender, you probably expect to receive roughly the same loan volume as you did last year. However, economic factors like the heated political atmosphere could have lasting repercussions on your loan volume.