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Business Growth Economy

Accelerate Auto Loan Volume This Tax Season

2024 has begun in an interesting fashion. Americans seem to be generally skeptical about the economy and their own financial well-being even though data reflects that the economy is actually quite robust. Consumers are spending briskly, which typically suggests optimism, not retrenchment. Inflation has tempered. Unemployment has been below 4% for 24 straight months, the longest such stretch since the 1960s. Despite these gains, many feel their long-term financial security is vulnerable to wide-ranging social and political threats, especially during this election year.

Some metrics reflect that consumer sentiment about the economy may be starting to improve. According to the University of Michigan monthly review, consumer sentiment recently posted the biggest two-month increase since 1991. Yet it remains about 20% lower than during the robust economy of early 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic started.

As lenders in the automotive market, this time of year is usually quite lucrative as buyers are in the market looking for deals. However, high interest rates and vehicle prices have kept many consumers on the sidelines.  The overall average auto loan interest rate was 7.03% for new cars and 11.35% for used cars in 2023’s third quarter, according to Experian. The average transaction price for a new vehicle in December was $48,759, according to Kelley Blue Book.

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Business Growth Economy

The Devil In Delinquencies

Experian’s Q3 State of the Automotive Finance Market Report revealed that 60-day auto loan delinquencies rose past pre-COVID levels, prompting concern for the auto lending industry. According to Fitch ratings, a record number of subprime borrowers are behind on auto loan payments by more than 60 days, hitting 6.11% in September. Vehicle repossession rates are also on the rise, leaving many without transportation. High delinquency and default rates mean lenders could face significant losses as they have more difficulty recouping funds.  

Another interesting data point is the scale of student loan debt compared to auto loan debt. In the first quarter of 2023, more than 43 million people in the U.S. were holding federal and private student loan debt, totaling more than $1.77 trillion overall. However, in September, the Wall Street Journal reported that the total amount of auto loan debt had surpassed student loan debt. At the end of Q2 2023, auto loan debt reached $1.58 trillion compared to $1.57 trillion in student loan debt.

Much of the loan debt can be attributed to the rise in car payments. According to Edmunds, the average new car payment in Q3 2023 reached $736 per month – a 4.6% increase over a year earlier.  Experian reports that three times as many people paid more than $1,000 monthly toward an auto loan. Think about how this trend line correlates with the rise in delinquencies.

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Business Growth

Move Past Second Thoughts

Rising interest rates and inflated vehicle prices are giving consumers second thoughts on purchasing a vehicle. A recent McKinsey & Company survey revealed that 77 percent of respondents indicated that reduced purchasing power is causing them to either postpone large expenses or be more conscious about spending, impacting car purchases. Nearly 40 percent of respondents who had intended to buy a vehicle are postponing that purchase, while a quarter plan instead to purchase a more affordable car type, citing high car prices, lack of affordability, and high interest rates for financing as reasons for their decision.

The question of financing is top of mind for consumers, according to the McKinsey survey. About 80 percent of buyers in the United States chose to finance, while about 20 percent chose to purchase outright. According to Experian and StoneEagleMETRICs, cash deals have been on the rise since the fourth quarter of 2020, with a steep rise in 2022.

While consumer interest in financing reflects growing affordability concerns, consumers also are unwilling to sacrifice certain features. Between 30 and 50 percent of respondents claimed they are very likely to prioritize vehicle size, premium brands, or higher trim when purchasing a new vehicle. The balance of consumers is likely willing to compromise, given reduced purchasing power.