interest rate | Lending Curve

I drove down ‘dealership row’ last weekend and was struck by the number of massive SALE banners and vehicle promotions. It’s that time of year when dealers are trying to move 2024 inventory to make room for the 2025 models. Fortunately, this year, they have some inventory to move – but face some stiff challenges thanks to high vehicle prices, stubborn interest rates, and hesitant consumers.

Industry forecasters expect third-quarter U.S. vehicle sales to be roughly flat compared to a year earlier. According to Edmunds’s estimate, automakers sold about 3.9 million new vehicles in the U.S. in the July-September period, 2.3% less than a year ago. Cox also forecasts a 2.1% decline, while J.D. Power predicts flat sales. The sluggish results would put automakers on pace to finish the year with U.S. vehicle sales of around 15.7 million—a slight increase from last year, when supply-chain snags were still hampering vehicle output but still off historic highs.