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Is Your Auto Loan Affordable?

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

According to a recent study from Bankrate.com, the average new-car price tag is too high for the majority of medium-income U.S. households. Here’s the breakdown:

In May, Kelley Blue Book updated the average new-vehicle transaction price to $33,261.

Using that transaction price, Bankrate applied the traditional 20-4-10 rule to conduct the study – i.e.:

  • a down payment of 20 percent
  • a four-year loan
  • principal, interest and insurance payments accounting for 10 percent of the household’s gross income

From looking at your own portfolios, you probably know that the majority of American consumers don’t put 20 percent down on their vehicle, and they are often financing for upwards of seven years. The fact that consumers don’t use the 20-4-10 rule should give you a good picture of the state of American finances in comparison to vehicle prices.

It should come as no surprise that Bankrate’s study came back showing that only one metro area could afford the average-priced new vehicle – Washington, D.C., where the median income is nearly $100,000.

Despite the fact that, according to Bankrate, most households can’t afford to purchase a new vehicle, new unit sales are still on par with last year’s levels. The most recent LMC Automotive/J.D. Power forecast puts 2017 new vehicle sales volume in the low 17 million-unit range for the year.

Categories
Business Growth Economy

Perspective on the Auto Sales Plateau

Mark Rappaport President Simplicity Division EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Mark Rappaport
President
Simplicity Division
EFG Companies

It’s official. Auto sales have plateaued. Dealerships across the U.S. are reporting low sales numbers in comparison to last year. Manufacturers have increased incentives, but no one’s taking the bait. Looking at these headlines, it all looks like doom and gloom. But, let’s take a step back for a second.

According to Automotive News, the auto industry sold 17.5 million vehicles last year, representing a seventh straight year of growth. When put in that perspective, a plateau at 17.5 million vehicles doesn’t seem too bad.

Yes, vehicle sales aren’t hitting manufacturer projections, but seriously, how long did they really think sustained growth was going to continue? We’ve been in one of the longest economic expansions in U.S. history; the economy was bound to slow down at one point.

With that perspective in mind, economic indicators continue to be strong.  National unemployment has hit its lowest level since May 2007. We’ve seen strong jobs gains in recent months. According to CNN, wages rose 2.5 percent in the past 12 months, and the median price of a home has risen to $236,400. Lastly, consumers are still taking on debt. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit rose 4.8% annually in February.

Clearly, there is still plenty of business available. This time of relative calm, with no abrupt economic changes, is the perfect time for auto lenders to catch a breath, regroup and re-address their go-forward plans with regards to loan volume.

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Uncategorized

Managing Rising Consumer Debt

Brien Joyce Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
Brien Joyce
Vice President
EFG Companies

The data says it all. According to Euromonitor and JATO, between 2009 and 2016:

  • U.S. consumer spending on vehicles grew by 36 percent
  • The outstanding balance of consumer auto loans increased by 36 percent
  • Disposable income only grew 15 percent
  • The outstanding balance of consumer loans as a whole decreased by 7 percent
  • The average auto debt per car in circulation rose by 44 percent

Everyone knows that since 2009, auto manufacturers and lenders aggressively pursued unit sales and loan volume. Manufacturers have hit a peak when it comes to providing deep incentives, while lenders loosened credit standards, increased terms, and dove into the deep-subprime space.

Morgan Stanley recently reported that the percentage of deep subprime loans rose from 5.1 percent in 2010 to 32.5 percent in 2017.

Now dealers, manufacturers, and lenders are beginning to see what the other side of this rapid expansion looks like. Sales are plateauing regardless of dealer or manufacturer incentives. Defaults and delinquencies are up, and loan originations are on the decline.