GM - Dealership Corridor

The midway point for 2021 is in the rearview mirror and many dealership owners and managers are knee-deep in planning for 2022. Now is the perfect time for a quick review of the mid-year economic indicators. While new model retail sales are trending up and used vehicle prices are hitting record highs, there are some broader market trends which should be considered.

Supply chain issues impact sales forecast

According to NADA, new light-vehicle sales are expected to reach 15.5 million units for 2021, representing a 7.2 percent year-over-year increase. Fitch Ratings expects vehicle sales to return to 2019 levels in 2022/2023. However, IHS Markit and Wards Intelligence do not expect the U.S. to see 17 million light-vehicle registrations annually until 2025. This market skepticism is fueled by supply chain issues and a persistent semiconductor shortage. General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Ford have all felt the impact on production, and analysts believe the semiconductor chip shortage will reduce new vehicle production by 1.28 million.

While dealers have experienced the vehicle shortages first hand, one bright spot is the strong trend toward online sales which were bolstered during the 2020 shutdown. Consumers increasingly became more comfortable completing more of the vehicle purchase process online. This has allowed dealers to stay in the game even with the persistent production issues as the online sales model is perfect for a vehicle order rather than immediate delivery.

Contributing Author:
John Stephens
Executive Vice President
EFG Companies

On October 3, General Motors made an announcement that many in the retail automotive space had been anticipating. GM reported a 12 percent year-over-year increase in total sales in September to 279,397 units, driven by a 17 percent increase at Chevrolet and a nine percent increase at GMC. Crossover deliveries were up 43 percent and trucks were up 10 percent. Passenger cars were down 11 percent. Retail deliveries, which accounted for about 80 percent of sales, were up eight percent for GM’s best September retail performance since 2007. Not to be outdone, Ford Motor Co. said its sales rose nine percent, with a 21.4 percent increase in its F-150 pickup truck.

Some of this strong growth can be directly attributed to the recent natural disasters from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Economist Jonathan Smoke at Cox Automotive has said that 600,000 vehicles lost to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida will need to be replaced. Sales prompted by prior weather disasters generally increase within two months of the start of the recovery.

But there is more to this story. While truck sales have surged, passenger cars are down across the board, minus Toyota whose sales rose 15 percent thanks to the redesigned Camry sedan. So this begs the question – why are car sales stalled? Car manufacturers continue to throw money at the problem, offering incentives of over $3,500 per vehicle. Could the retail lot inventory be mismatched for consumer demand?