Tag: Federal Reserve

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Dealership Training Industry Trends Training

Consultative selling

The United Auto Workers strike at a few U.S. manufacturing plants has consumed the daily news cycle over the past few weeks. While new vehicle inventory has largely recovered from the pandemic-induced supply chain issues, dealer principals are closely watching how events unfold before adjusting year-end plans.

As dealers face an uncertain 4th quarter, consumers are also casting a sideways glance at their economic future. According to the Experian State of the Automotive Finance Market Q2 2023 report, auto loan delinquencies rose past pre-COVID levels and new vehicle values continued to climb while LTV decreased. While the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this month – for the second time this year – rates remained at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, the highest level since 2001. But auto lenders continue to take their pound of flesh as the average auto loan interest rates across all credit profiles ranged from 5.18 percent to 14.08 percent for new cars and 6.79 percent to 21.32 percent for used cars.

Americans owe $1.56 trillion in auto loan debt, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, accounting for 9.2 percent of American consumer debt. The average payment for new vehicles was a record-high $742 in the second quarter of 2023, with loan terms up to 74 months, according to Experian. Think about paying $742 every month for the next five years on possibly two vehicles. A lot can happen during that time, including layoffs, unexpected repairs, theft, accidents, etc.

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Economy

Will Interest Hikes Impact Dealerships?

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve increased its interest rate by a quarter of a point, and signaled they planned six more increases throughout the year. In response, banks with large auto loan portfolios raised their prime rates from 3.25 percent to 3.50 percent. The theory behind this is relatively straightforward. By raising the federal funds rate a domino effect takes place, slowing demand for goods and tapping the brakes on inflation. Whether directly or indirectly, a number of borrowing costs for consumers will also rise.

Prices for new and used vehicles have skyrocketed so much in the past year that an increase in interest rates may seem like small potatoes. The average interest rate on new car loans was 4.39 percent in February, relatively flat from a year ago, according to Dealertrack. The average for used vehicles was 7.83 percent in February, down from 8.25 percent. Car buyers taking out loans for a new vehicle borrowed an average of $39,721 in 2021, an increase of over $4,000 from a year earlier, according to Experian. As a result, monthly loan payments hit a record high of $644.

Car loans tend to track against the five-year Treasury, which is influenced by the federal fund rate. But the rate a consumer pays is based on credit history, the type of loan, down payment, type of vehicle and other factors. Those buyers with poor credit could pay more than 20 percent over the prime rate. For a consumer qualifying at the prime rate, a quarter point increase on a $40,000 loan is about $5 a month, or another $300 over the life of a five-year loan. For a buyer at subprime or worse, a quarter point increase could make a significant difference on the type of vehicle, the terms of the loan or even a “no-go” decision to purchase a vehicle.

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Industry Trends

Keep On Keeping On

Contributing Author: John Stephens Executive Vice President EFG Companies
Contributing Author:
John Stephens
Executive Vice President
EFG Companies

We are halfway through a very interesting year in retail automotive. If you had planned for flat sales, lower OEM incentives, and interest rates bumping along the lower range, congratulations! You’ve planned for this situation and hopefully are managing well. Going forward, you’ll need to stay the course. The forecast for the second half of this year and all of 2020 appears to be equally bumpy.

The Economy

On June 19th, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates steady in the near term, but retained an option to cut rates as economic risks mount and inflation remains stuck below their target. But amid continuing trade tensions and slowing global economic growth, the Fed is preparing for the economy to take a hit and is keeping an interest rate ace up their sleeve.

There are other indicators of a stalling economy. A subdued global economy, increased corporate stock buybacks, and some spikes in lay-offs will keep business bumpy throughout 2019 and into 2020. Significant peaks and valleys in the stock market have caused unrest. The good news is that investors are predicting another recession in two to three years, meaning a recession may still be a few years off.

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