In October of this year, average new car transactions were about 21 percent higher than the same month three years ago when no end was in sight for the pandemic. Conversely, average transaction prices are also about 20 percent higher than in October 2020. Despite moving more metal, falling profits have dealers feeling particularly uncomfortable; hence, the automotive industry saw declines in the Q3 2023 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, which declined for five consecutive quarters.
According to Cox Automotive economist Jonathan Smoke, “The latest index indicates that persistently high interest rates and lingering concerns about the economy and market conditions are dampening overall dealer sentiment. Franchised dealer optimism is on the rise, whereas independents are less hopeful due to affordability issues that more acutely affect the used-vehicle market and their businesses.”
With the UAW strike in the rearview mirror and inventory strong, there is room for optimism for dealers facing a hesitant buyer’s market. According to Kelley Blue Book data, new car average transaction prices (ATP) stayed flat month-over-month in October at $47,936. Cox Automotive reports that new vehicle transaction prices fell more than 3.5 percent year-to-date as downward price pressure continues to favor buyers in the market. Manufacturer incentives also increased to an average of $2,400 in October as OEMs lent support to move units off dealer lots.
