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Business Growth Economy

Turning the Page: Key Points on a New Year

We have officially turned the page into a new year and a new administration. Lessons learned from 2020 are still fresh, and there appears to be plenty of momentum on various financial fronts that lend to a positive outlook. Here are some key points to consider.

Key Points

The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to keep interest rates at near zero for the next two to three years. Pending a third stimulus package, improved employment numbers, heightened consumer confidence, and the pace of the recovery, it’s possible that we will see auto lending growth as early as Q2.

According to a recent TransUnion 2021 consumer credit forecast, the financial institution found that consumer access to credit cards and personal loans is expected to rebound through the first half of 2021 while new auto loans will shift toward lower risk consumers. Despite potential obstacles to the consumer credit market, TransUnion foresees positive trends buoyed by expected improvements in macroeconomic factors such as unemployment and GDP.

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Business Growth

New Horizons Ahead in the Used Car Market

Have you paid attention to the used-car market this year? Previously viewed as less desirable by some lenders, used cars are gaining some cachet. Unfortunately, credit unions appear to be missing the boat. According to the recently issued Experian State of the Automotive Finance Market Report for the second quarter of 2020, market share for credit unions in used car financing has declined precipitously since the same time last year. Experian’s report posted a 3.9 percent market share decline to 24.9 percent.

Why the decline? Several factors are likely at play. The market for used cars has grown exponentially. In June, franchised car dealers sold 1.2 million used cars and trucks, according to Edmunds, up 22 percent from 2019. It was the highest monthly total since at least 2007. Credit unions have lower market share with franchised dealers and so are missing the bulk of this sales volume.

New unit inventory issues are also creating a perceived demand for older cars, fed by a roughly two-month halt in production of new cars earlier in 2020. In the first seven months of the year, automakers produced 6.6 million cars and light trucks in North America – three million fewer than in 2019, according to Automotive News. Additionally, consumers are keeping their vehicles for up to 12 years and receiving a tidy sum if they choose to sell, slowing the revolving door of used car inventory.

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Business Growth Economy

In A Position of Strength

Looking for a ray of sunshine these days? Consider this…credit unions are in a much stronger financial position to weather the COVID-19 pandemic and the looming economic fall-out versus the Great Recession of 2007-2009. According to the quarterly Trendwatch report from Callahan & Associates, as of March 31, assets held in the United States stood at $1,663.3 billion and capital registered at $193.4 billion – double those respective positions on Dec. 31, 2007. Member relationships were also stronger than those recorded in 2007, proving that at least some lessons were learned from that recession event.

There were also some bright spots in Q1 2020 metrics. Credit unions notched the largest ever quarterly net liquidity increase in Q1 2020 to $50 billion, providing lots of flexibility for strategic moves. This liquidity enabled credit unions to extend an additional $5 billion in credit card lines in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

Buoyed by consumer confidence early in the first quarter, first time mortgages accounted for over a third of the quarter’s originations. Fixed rate mortgages more than doubled from Q1 2019 to Q1 2020, reflecting historically low interest rates. But a cloud did darken overall loan growth by 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending March 31, 2020 compared to the 12 months ending March 31, 2019.